US tariffs hit India’s export engine: GTRI report shows 37.5% slump across key sectors; smartphones, pharma, gems among worst hit

India’s exports to the US plunged 37.5% between May and September 2025 as sweeping tariff hikes by the Trump administration squeezed margins across major sectors, according to a report by India-based trade think tank Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI), ANI reported.The US, India’s largest export market, saw shipments fall from $8.8 billion to $5.5 billion over the five-month period, marking one of the steepest short-term declines in recent years, GTRI said in its analysis. The study assessed India’s export performance from May to September 2025 to gauge the fallout from US tariffs imposed starting April 2.According to GTRI, the duties began at 10%, rose to 25% by August 7, and hit 50% by late August for Indian products. Tariff-free goods—making up nearly one-third of India’s total shipments—saw the steepest contraction, plunging 47% from $3.4 billion in May to $1.8 billion in September.“Smartphones and pharmaceuticals were the biggest casualties,” GTRI said. Smartphone exports, which had surged 197% in the same period a year earlier, crashed 58% from $2.29 billion in May to $884.6 million in September. Shipments fell consistently each month, and GTRI noted, “The reasons for decline are not known and need examination.”Pharmaceutical exports dropped 15.7%, from $745.6 million to $628.3 million, while industrial metals and auto parts—subject to uniform tariffs globally—recorded a milder 16.7% dip. Within that category, aluminium exports fell 37%, copper 25%, auto parts 12%, and iron and steel 8%.“Because all global suppliers faced similar duties, the dip appears linked more to a slowdown in US industrial activity than to any loss in Indian competitiveness,” GTRI said.Labour-intensive sectors such as textiles, gems and jewellery, chemicals, agri-foods, and machinery—which together make up nearly 60% of India’s US exports—recorded a 33% fall, from $4.8 billion in May to $3.2 billion in September. Gems and jewellery exports plunged 59.5%, from $500.2 million to $202.8 million, as Thailand and Vietnam captured lost US orders.Solar panel exports fell 60.8%, from $202.6 million to $79.4 million, undermining India’s renewable energy export edge. “With China facing only 30% tariffs and Vietnam 20%, India’s competitiveness has sharply deteriorated,” GTRI noted.The report also pointed to declines in chemicals, marine and seafood, textiles, and agri and processed food exports. “Exporters are urging the government to respond swiftly,” it added, suggesting priority measures such as enhanced interest-equalisation support, faster duty remission, and emergency credit lines for MSME exporters.Without urgent policy intervention, GTRI warned, India risks losing market share to Vietnam, Mexico, and China even in sectors where it previously held a strong position. “The latest data make one point clear: tariffs have not only squeezed India’s trade margins but also exposed structural vulnerabilities across key export industries,” the think tank concluded.