The future of shopping has arrived — and Google wants to run it

Alphabet ‘s Google has moved beyond the search bar, positioning itself as the lead architect of “agentic commerce.” In this new world, AI not only suggests what you buy but executes the purchase for you. For years, online retail has operated under a predictable platform: Shoppers search, click through the results, and complete checkout on the retailer’s website. Agentic commerce is rewriting those steps. Instead of manually navigating the results, consumers will rely on artificial intelligence agents that can compare products, manage user accounts, and complete purchases in a single conversation. Google is enabling that transition — adding another reason why the Club in late December got back into Alphabet for its Google Gemini 3 AI model, which has emerged as a world-class rival to OpenAI’s ChatGPT. Our latest buy was Tuesday during a down market. GOOGL 1Y mountain Alphabet 1 year At the National Retail Federation conference earlier this month, Alphabet CEO Sundar Pichai unveiled the Universal Commerce Protocol (UCP) – a new open standard designed to help autonomous AI agents handle the most complex parts of shopping, including discount codes, payment processing, and checkout. UCP allows retailers to offer personalized deals and easy checkout directly within Google Search and Gemini, letting merchants participate in the AI platform shift. Built in collaboration with Wayfair , Shopify , Walmart , Etsy , and Target , “[UCP] lays the groundwork for AI agents and systems to talk to each other across every step of the shopping journey,” Pichai wrote in a LinkedIn post following the NRF announcement. Google said UCP was built for both retailers and customers, “keeping the full customer relationship front and center — from the moments of discovery to decision and beyond.” Google also framed agentic commerce as a significant platform shift that builds “a new chapter in retail.” It’s a necessary move that aligns with shoppers who are increasingly turning to AI tools instead of traditional search to guide purchase decisions and declining foot traffic at physical retail. The UCP standard comes at a critical time as AI agents are changing how retail operates and grows as well as the customer experience. OpenAI’s ChatGPT has already jumped into agentic commerce with its launch of Instant Checkout. It’s a feature that lets users browse, select, and buy products directly in ChatGPT, without leaving the conversation. Like Google’s UCP, ChatGPT has its Agentic Commerce Protocol (ACP) that enables it to coordinate with merchants, payment processors, and fulfillment systems to complete purchases. OpenAI also announced last week that it’s planning to start testing ads in the U.S., competing directly with Google’s core ad business. OpenAI’s ads won’t be launched yet. Instead, the company is starting by testing ads at the bottom of answers in ChatGPT when there’s a relevant product or service based on the user’s conversation with the chatbot, the company said in the press release. Amazon , also a Club name, has a generative AI shopping agent called Rufus that allows users to ask questions about products. The chatbot compares product features, writes recommendations, and helps refine purchases. Rufus, however, does not complete transactions and therefore is not fully agentic. While competition is rapidly accelerating, Google has one core advantage: the colossal amounts of user data. Its ecosystem, which includes Gmail, YouTube, Search, Maps, and Ads, is the fuel that AI needs to get smarter. Additionally, usage is growing rapidly. As of Alphabet’s second quarter of fiscal 2025, AI-powered Search served more than 200 million users monthly. The Gemini app has over 650 million monthly users, as of November, and Gemini Enterprise exceeded 2 million business users within months of launch. Until recently, Alphabet was seen as playing catch-up in the generative AI race — from the underwhelming initial launch of Gemini — Alphabet’s answer to ChatGPT — to Justice Department litigation alleging that Google had a monopoly on digital ads and Search. But with legal matters neutralized and the rapid scaling of Gemini — particularly its latest version, Gemini 3 — those “capitulated Alphabet’s Google into the lead for once among the frontier model developers,” Argus Research wrote in an early January note. It’s why fellow Club name Apple chose Gemini as its partner to run the upcoming, souped-up, AI-powered Siri. Jim Cramer agrees that Gemini 3 has put it ahead of other chatbots. He said Alphabet is “an outright winner” among the most favorable mega cap tech stocks during January’s Monthly Meeting for Club members, which was held Thursday. With Gemini powering UCP behind the scenes, enabling it to manage the entire shopping journey, Wall Street sees Google’s tech clearly separating it from the crowded AI commerce field. By introducing UCP technology that powers agentic commerce, Roth MKM believes “there is no innovator’s dilemma at Google.” Google is “disrupting retail search from the inside out,” analysts wrote in a research last week, noting that UCP marks a new era beyond the traditional “Search-Click-Buy” model to “Chat-Then-Buy.” They also argued that UCP “positions Google as commerce infrastructure rather than a direct retailer.” The firm believes UCP’s importance lies in enabling “personalized offers, loyalty integration, and checkout directly within AI conversations” and that Google is preparing to roll out buy buttons across AI Search and Gemini. Roth has a $310 price target and buy rating on Alphabet stock. KeyBanc echoed a bullish view, arguing UCP “builds on historical strength with retailers and AI momentum,” given Google’s long history of helping retailers navigate technological change. Analysts continued, “With agentic shopping rolling into Search and the Gemini app, we expect Google’s AI momentum will continue,” they wrote last week. The firm has a buy rating and a $330 price target on the stock. Bottom line Our investment case on Alphabet isn’t anchored on its retail AI tools, but UCP adds to the narrative that Google is solidifying its position as a leader in the AI race. Alphabet has shaken off the perception that it is playing catch-up in generative AI. In fact, we would argue the tech giant has shifted to offense, where it is setting the rules for the critical AI commerce game. Investors will get an update on what else Alphabet has in store on the AI front when it reports its fiscal 2025 fourth quarter after the bell on Feb. 4. We will also look forward to what the company sees ahead for 2026. We have our buy-equivalent 1 rating on Alphabet and a $350-per-share price target. (Jim Cramer’s Charitable Trust is long GOOGL, AMZN. 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