Stocks Climb on the Push for a Ceasefire in Iran
Stock indexes are climbing, and crude oil prices are falling today amid reports of efforts to secure a potential ceasefire in the war in Iran. Axios reported that the US, Iran, and a group of regional mediators are discussing the terms for a potential 45-day ceasefire that could lead to a permanent end to the war. On Sunday, President Trump extended his previous 10-day deadline for Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz by 20 hours until Tuesday evening and threatened to unleash “all hell” on Iran if the Strait of Hormuz is not reopened to all shipping traffic by Tuesday. However, Mr. Trump also said the US was in “deep negotiations” with Iran and “there is a good chance to make a deal, but if they don’t make a deal, I am blowing up everything over there.” However, the chances of a ceasefire appear doubtful after a spokesman for Iran’s Foreign Ministry said, “No rational person” would accept a ceasefire proposal.
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Stocks also found support from last Friday’s US economic news, which showed strength in the labor market. March nonfarm payrolls rose by +178,000, stronger than expectations of +65,000 and the largest increase in 15 months. Also, the March unemployment rate unexpectedly fell -0.1 to 4.3%, showing a stronger labor market than expectations of no change at 4.4%. The markets were closed last Friday for the Good Friday holiday.
Crude oil prices (CLK26) erased overnight gains and are down more than -1% on a push to secure a potential ceasefire in the war in Iran. US and Israeli strikes on Iranian targets continued over the weekend, while Kuwait reported fires at some of its refining facilities after Iranian drone and missile attacks. Also, the UAE reported a petrochemical plant at Ruwais and the Habshan gas facility, the UAE’s largest natural gas processing facility, halted production following Iranian attacks. The New York Times, citing US intelligence reports, said Iranian personnel have been digging out underground missile bunkers and silos struck by US and Israeli bombs and returning them to operations hours after attacks. The International Energy Agency warned that even if the war were to end within a few weeks, it would still take time for normal flows through Hormuz to resume, as some energy infrastructure has been damaged and is facing lengthy repairs.
The markets are discounting a 1% chance for a +25 bp FOMC rate hike at the April 28-29 policy meeting.
Most overseas stock markets are closed for holidays. The Euro Stoxx 50 is closed for the Easter Monday holiday. China’s Shanghai Composite is closed for the Tomb Sweeping Day holiday. Japan’s Nikkei Stock 225 closed up +0.55%.
Interest Rates
June 10-year T-notes (ZNM6) today are down by -2 ticks. The 10-year T-note yield is up by +0.6 bp to 4.347%. June T-notes are under pressure today from a rebound in stock prices, which has reduced safe-haven demand for government debt. T-notes are also weighed down today by some negative carryover from last Friday’s stronger-than-expected US Mar payroll report. In addition, an increase in inflation expectations is bearish for T-notes as the 10-year breakeven inflation rate rose to a 2-week high of 2.381% today.
European government bonds are not trading today, with markets in Europe closed for the Easter Monday holiday.
Swaps are discounting a 50% chance of a +25 bp ECB rate hike at its next policy meeting on April 30.
US Stock Movers
Chipmakers and AI-infrastructure stocks are climbing today to support gains in the broader market. Seagate Technology Holdings Plc (STX) is up more than +7% to lead gainers in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100. Also, Intel (INTC) and Western Digital (WDC) are up more than +3%, and Micron Technology (MU), Marvell Technology (MRVL), Microchip Technology (MCHP), and NXP Semiconductors NV (NXPI) are up more than +2%. In addition, ARM Holdings Plc (ARM), Analog Devices (ADI), KLA Corp (KLAC), Lam Research (LRCX), and Texas Instruments (TXN) are up more than +1%.
Cryptocurrency-exposed stocks are moving higher today, with Bitcoin (^BTCUSD) up more than +3% at a 1-week high. Riot Platforms (RIOT) is up more than +5%, and Strategy (MSTR) is up more than +4%. Also, Coinbase Global (COIN) and MARA Holdings (MARA) are up more than +3%, and Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY) is up more than +2%.
Solena Therapeutics (SLNO) is up more than +32% after the Financial Times reported that Neurocrine is in advanced talks to acquire the company.
Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI) is up more than +8% after receiving a new $71 million order for 800G single-mode data center transceivers from a hyperscale customer.
Kratos Defense & Security Solutions (KTOS) is up more than +6% after Jeffries upgraded the stock to buy from hold with a price target of $85.
Netflix (NFLX) is up more than +3% after Goldman Sachs upgraded the stock to buy from neutral with a price target of $120.
Twilio (TWLO) is up by more than +1% after Jeffries upgraded the stock to buy from hold with a price target of $160.
Rocket Cos (RKT) is up more than +1% after Barclays upgraded the stock to overweight from equal weight with a price target of $72.
Las Vegas Sands (LVS) is down more than -2% after Melius Research LLC downgraded the stock to sell from hold with a price target of $70.
LyondellBasell Industries NV (LYB) is down more than -1% after Bank of America Global Research downgraded the stock to underperform from neutral with a price target of $68.
Dow Inc. (DOW) is down more than -1% after Bank of America Global Research downgraded the stock to underperform from neutral with a price target of $35.
Westlake (WLK) is down more than -1% after Bank of America Global Research downgraded the stock to neutral from buy.
Carvana (CVNA) is down more than -1% after Bank of America Global Research downgraded the stock to neutral from buy.
Earnings Reports(4/6/2026)
ECB Bancorp Inc/MD (ECBK), Greene County Bancorp Inc (GCBC), Immersion Corp (IMMR), RxSight Inc (RXST).
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