Scientists warn! Gulf Stream collapse could trigger severe global disruption |

Scientists warn! Gulf Stream collapse could trigger severe global disruption

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation is the huge ocean system that moves warm water north through the Atlantic. Scientists are looking at it again to see how strong it is. This flow, which people often compare to the Gulf Stream, affects the weather in parts of the tropics, North America, and Europe. Based on new models, the movement seems to be weaker now than it has been in the last 1,600 years. Scientists say that the drop is caused in part by global warming and rising sea levels. Climate models from the past thought it was unlikely that the whole system would fail before 2100. Newer simulations that go further into the future show that the tipping point may be closer than was thought before, but there is still a lot of doubt.

Gulf Stream system faces up to 70 per cent collapse risk under rising emissions

According to the Arctic Portal, earlier studies suggested that a breakdown of the system this century was improbable. The new research uses more complex simulations and runs them over longer periods. In these projections, a tipping point could be reached within decades if greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise.The collapse itself, if triggered, might unfold over 50 to 100 years rather than happening suddenly. Still, scientists describe the probability as higher than past estimates. The study places the risk at 70 per cent under rising emissions. If emissions stabilise at current levels, the probability falls to 37 per cent. Even under reductions aligned with the Paris Agreement, researchers calculate a 25 per cent risk. Those figures have drawn attention because they suggest the system is more sensitive than once thought.

The gulf stream forms part of a wider climate system

The Gulf Stream carries warm water from the Gulf of Mexico along the eastern coast of the United States before turning towards Europe. It is one element of the broader Atlantic overturning circulation.As warm surface water travels north, it cools and becomes denser. It sinks into the deep ocean and flows back southward. This vertical movement acts as part of a global ocean conveyor, redistributing heat and nutrients.Western Europe is milder than other regions at similar latitudes partly because of this heat transport. Florida winters are also shaped by the same system. The circulation does not act alone, but it plays a steady role.

A collapse would reshape regional climates and sea levels

Researchers warn that a weakening or collapse could shift the tropical rainfall belt, affecting food production for millions. Some areas may see heavier rainfall, others prolonged drought. Sea levels along parts of the North Atlantic coast could rise by an additional half metre beyond existing projections. Winters in western Europe could turn colder, even as global temperatures continue to climb overall.Weather systems elsewhere may also destabilise. The changes would not be uniform. They rarely are.For now, scientists describe the findings as a warning rather than a forecast. The circulation continues to flow, though more slowly than before.