Rocket Lab Earnings Loom as Neutron Timeline Takes Center Stage

Aerospace and defense company Rocket Lab (NASDAQ: RKLB) is just a week away from its fourth quarter earnings report, scheduled for Feb. 26 after the market closes. The stakes are high.

Not only will investors be looking for updated timelines and forward guidance, but the stock has also pulled back sharply from its recent highs. Shares are down nearly 30% from their 52-week and all-time highs, pressured by a mix of softer risk appetite and company-specific concerns. With sentiment reset, this earnings report could prove pivotal for the stock’s near-term direction.

Here is what investors should focus on heading into the release.

Technical Positioning Remains Constructive

Despite the recent volatility, Rocket Lab’s longer-term trend remains intact. The stock is still up more than 1,300% over the past three years and sits roughly flat year to date. Over the past two months, shares have experienced sharp selling pressure.

The pullback was driven in part by broader market weakness and in part by concerns surrounding Neutron development. Even so, the higher-time-frame structure remains bullish.

On the weekly chart, Rocket Lab continues to trade above its 200-day simple moving average. The stock is also attempting to establish a higher low near $65.

Since its uptrend began in 2025, the pattern of higher highs and higher lows has not been broken.

As long as shares remain above the 200-day moving average and well above the November 2025 lows near $40, the broader uptrend remains intact.

Neutron Timeline Takes Center Stage

The most immediate source of investor anxiety has been the recent Neutron development update. In January, the company disclosed that a Stage 1 tank ruptured during qualification testing at its Long Beach, California, facility. Rocket Lab emphasized that such outcomes are not uncommon during development testing, particularly for a new medium lift launch vehicle. Still, uncertainty around whether the incident could delay Neutron’s maiden flight weighed heavily on sentiment.

The company said that it would assess the impact and provide an updated timeline during the fourth-quarter earnings call. That update will likely be the most closely watched element of the report.

If the maiden Neutron launch remains on track within the previously communicated window, and management provides constructive commentary on testing progress and customer engagement, sentiment could shift quickly.

What the Earnings Report Needs to Show

Operationally, Rocket Lab entered this quarter with momentum. In its third quarter 2025 results, the company posted record revenue and demonstrated continued demand across both Electron launch services and its Space Systems division.

Investors will be looking for that strength to continue. Management previously guided fourth-quarter revenue between $170 million and $180 million, with non-GAAP gross margin expected in the mid-40 % range. Meeting or exceeding that guidance would reinforce confidence in execution.

Electron remains the company’s financial backbone for now, and management continues to target non-GAAP margins of 45% to 50% as launch cadence increases. In addition, Rocket Lab ended last quarter with more than $1.1 billion in contracted backlog across launch and spacecraft production.

A meaningful portion of that backlog is expected to convert into revenue over the next year, which will be another key focus for investors.

The company also continues to secure government business. On Feb. 12, Rocket Lab announced an upcoming dedicated HASTE mission for the Department of War’s Defense Innovation Unit, marking its fourth hypersonic test launch in under six months. That cadence underscores growing demand for responsive launch capabilities.

This earnings report is about execution and reassurance. If Rocket Lab can deliver solid financial results, reaffirm its Neutron timeline, and demonstrate continued demand strength, the recent pullback may be more noise than signal.

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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.