Beer Stocks are Breaking Out (BUD, HEINY, CABGY)
A powerful but underappreciated development is unfolding, as select beer stocks, which have struggled in recent years quietly gain momentum, supported by improving fundamentals, reasonable valuations, and strong price momentum.
Three stocks where this is accelerating are Heineken (HEINY), AnheuserBusch InBev (BUD), and Carlsberg (CABGY). HEINY and CABGY currently hold a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), while BUD carries a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy), reflecting rising analyst sentiment on the group.
The core thesis is straightforward: multiple expansion from a low base, driven by earnings growth and capital flows seeking depressed opportunities.
When earnings per share are growing in the teens while revenue expands at only single-digit rates, the story is about margin expansion and capital return. For mature global beverage companies trading at mid-teens forward P/E multiples, well below the S&P 500’s roughly 21x, it does not take heroic assumptions to justify a re-rating. It simply requires a narrative shift from “secular decline” to “stable, efficient, and returning cash.”
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Alcohol Stock Under Ownership Is Driving the Early Move
Alcohol stocks were aggressively de-rated over the last several years. Concerns around GLP-1 drugs, sobriety trends among younger consumers, cannabis substitution, and slowing developed market consumption drove a broad “secular decline” thesis. As a result, active managers underweighted the group.
However, it seems that those expectations have been priced too heavily into these stocks, and as good businesses do, they pivoted. With few investors meaningfully exposed, incremental buying is having an outsized impact on price. This mechanical under ownership dynamic is often how early-stage rotations begin.
The pattern is consistent with what is currently unfolding: improving price action before a major earnings revision cycle. Buy side capital typically moves first and sell side upgrades often follow. If revision breadth begins to widen in coming quarters, that would provide confirmation of a more durable re-rating.
Earnings Upgrades Drive HEINY, BUD and CABGY Shares Higher
Earnings estimates appear to be in the early stages of an upgrade cycle, and that dynamic is often the fuel behind sustained price momentum. What makes the setup particularly compelling is the quality of the growth profile. Revenue is expanding in the mid-single digits, while earnings are growing in the teens, a clear sign of operating leverage improvement.
That type of divergence between sales and EPS tells a specific story. These businesses are not reliant on aggressive volume acceleration. Instead, margin expansion, pricing power, mix shift toward premium offerings, and disciplined cost control are driving incremental profitability. When fixed costs are largely covered and incremental revenue drops through at a higher margin, even modest top line growth can translate into outsized earnings gains.
The revisions trend confirms that the underlying fundamentals are improving. For Heineken, current year earnings estimates have climbed 5.3% over the past month, while next year’s consensus has moved 4.6% higher. That magnitude of upward revision in a defensive staple name is meaningful. It signals growing confidence that margin gains are likely durable rather than temporary. Both Carlsberg and AnheuserBusch InBev are showing similar inflections in estimate trends as well.
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Shares Break Out on Strong Momentum with Technical Confirmation
Price action supports the improving fundamental narrative. All three stocks have begun building constructive technical setups, reflecting institutional accumulation.
In early re-rating cycles, momentum frequently precedes broad earnings upgrades. If fundamentals continue to stabilize and margins remain firm, the current strength may extend for multiple quarters before valuations fully normalize.
In the chart below, we can see AnheuserBusch InBev stock broke out from a stage one base to start the year, which led to a rigorous rally in the first six weeks of 2026. Then in the last two weeks, shares have consolidated into a continuation pattern and are today breaking out again. This is a pattern shared in Heineken and Carlsberg stocks as well.
Image Source: TradingView
Should Investors Buy Shares in BUD, CAGBY and HEINY?
The combination of under ownership, better-than-feared fundamentals, margin expansion, reasonable valuations, and improving technical setups is not an accident. It is often the exact environment that sustains momentum before the broader market fully recognizes the shift.
For investors looking beyond crowded trades and stretched multiples, Heineken, AnheuserBusch InBev, and Carlsberg represent a compelling setup: stable global franchises, expanding margins, and the potential for continued multiple expansion from a low base.
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Free: See Our Top Stock And 4 Runners Up
Anheuser-Busch InBev SA/NV (BUD) : Free Stock Analysis Report
Carlsberg AS (CABGY) : Free Stock Analysis Report
Heineken NV (HEINY) : Free Stock Analysis Report
This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
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