Alberta, Quebec referendums likely would fail due to Canadians’ anxiety: pollster

David Coletto, whose polling firm Abacus Data has been studying what it calls the “precarity mindset” in Canada for the last year, says that uncertainty would need to ease in order for a “yes” vote to succeed in either province.

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Alberta’s election agency recently announced it has approved a proposed referendum question on the province separating from Canada, meaning the question could be put to Albertans in a referendum if organizers collect enough signatures.

In Quebec, Parti Québécois Leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon is promising to hold a referendum on sovereignty during his first term if the party wins the general election scheduled for Oct. 5, 2026.

Coletto says the structural conditions that would support a sovereignty push in Alberta or Quebec are weaker today than they were in the 1990s.

Coletto says voters are more anxious, their economic uncertainty is higher, the geopolitical environment is more volatile and external threats have increased “the perceived value of national cohesion.”