Why the U.S. is blockading the Strait of Hormuz and NATO doesn’t want in – National

The United States military issued a warning Monday that it will be enforcing a blockade of Iranian ports on the Gulf of Oman — east of the Strait of Hormuz — as ceasefire negotiations with Iran broke down over the weekend, U.S. Central Command said in a notice to seafarers.

The notice said the blockade would begin at 10 a.m. eastern, following a proclamation from U.S. President Donald Trump. The Gulf of Oman is a strategic body of water in the Arabian Sea, which lies just east of the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran has been blocking to most international shipping traffic for weeks.

“The blockade will be enforced impartially against vessels of all nations entering or departing Iranian ports and coastal areas, including all Iranian ports on the Arabian Gulf and Gulf of Oman,” the U.S. military notice said.

The blockade is a form of “coercive diplomatic signaling” meant to squeeze Iran economically and pressure Tehran, said Alexander Salt, senior researcher and managing editor of the Canadian Global Affairs Institute.

“As a form of economic warfare, by restricting Iranian commercial shipping imports and exports, the blockade will try to further pressure the Iranian government by strangling their economy,” Salt said.

The U.S. said it will “not impede freedom of navigation for vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz to and from non-Iranian ports.”

“Any vessel entering or departing the blockaded area without authorization is subject to interception, diversion, and capture,” the note said.

The blockade “encompasses the entirety of the Iranian coastline to include but not limited to ports and oil terminals,” the note said, adding that humanitarian shipments including food, medical supplies and other essential goods would be permitted, subject to inspection.

While the U.S. has naval superiority over the Iranians in the region, Washington will still find it difficult to wrest control of the Strait of Hormuz with ease, Salt said.

“Although the U.S. maintains technological superiority and a greater number of ships, the Iranians can still potentially inflict damage on U.S. ships via sea mines, as well as shore-based missiles and drones. As this phase of the conflict continues, the risk of casualties will grow,” he said.

The strategy is a “game of chicken” that continues to be played out between the U.S. and Iran, said Kevin Budning, director of scientific research at the CDA Institute in Ottawa.

“A sustained blockage of the Strait has high costs on both sides. Achieving these objectives is a lofty, highly costly goal. It would take a large naval fleet to block the Strait, diverting away from other arenas. It would be extremely risky, Iranian speed watercrafts could still ambush the American fleet,” he added.

For Iran, the strategy may just be to keep taking the damage until the Americans give up, Salt said. Whether or not the U.S. succeeds in its goals depends on their willingness to sustain the naval operation, he said.

“The Iranians may attempt to simply outlast the U.S. by refusing to concede to their demands, even if it means a great cost will be inflicted on the Iranian economy as a result,” he added.

Meanwhile, NATO allies, including Britain and France, said they would not be drawn into the conflict by taking part in the blockade.

“We’re not supporting the blockade,” British Prime Minister Keir Starmer told the BBC.

“My decision has been very clearly that whatever the pressure, and there’s been some considerable pressure, we’re not getting dragged into the war,” he said.

The reluctance on part of NATO allies to put their military personnel and equipment at risk is “not surprising,” Salt said.

“The United States and Israel rushed into the war without putting much effort into wider coalition building until after the fighting had already begun,” he said.

NATO members may prefer to open traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, instead of Trump’s blockade, Budning said.

“It is a high-cost operation that does not have any clear long-term strategy,” he said.

Tehran has threatened to retaliate against ports of its Gulf neighbours after weekend talks failed to reach a deal to end the war, leaving a ceasefire in jeopardy.

Oil prices surged when trade reopened on Monday, with no sign of a swift reopening of the Strait of Hormuz to ease the worst-ever disruption in supplies.

Since the war started, Iran has effectively shut the Strait to all vessels except its own, saying ships would only be allowed through under Iranian control and subject to a fee. Trump said he would now block Iran’s ships too, and any vessels that paid Iran a toll.

Two Iranian-linked tankers, the Aurora and New Future, laden with oil products and diesel, left the strait on Monday shortly before the U.S. blockade was due to take effect, according to data from provider LSEG.

An Iranian military spokesperson, quoted by state media, said any U.S. restrictions on vessels in international waters would be illegal and amount to “piracy.” If Iranian ports were threatened, no port in the Gulf of Oman would remain secure, the spokesperson said.

Earlier, Iran’s Revolutionary Guards said any military vessels approaching the Strait would be considered to have violated the ceasefire.

On Sunday, Trump posted on social media: “No one who pays an illegal toll will have safe passage on the high seas,” adding, “Any Iranian who fires at us, or at peaceful vessels, will be BLOWN TO HELL!”

— with files from Reuters