Outlook for April 6-10, 2026
Investors appear hopeful the sell-off is coming to an end, even if there’s more volatility ahead in the near-term. Stocks staged a massive comeback this week, with the S & P 500 posting its best day since May on Tuesday, at the end of the quarter, and then advancing again on Wednesday, as a new month began. Ultimately, the broader index ended the holiday-shortened week higher by 3.4%, even as stocks vacillated between gains and losses during Thursday’s session. The two-day rally was substantial enough to assure bulls that the equity market is closer to moving on from the U.S.-Iran war now that investors have had time to digest the potential impact higher oil prices will have on the economy. But there is still a sizeable camp that warn against trading this moment, saying saying equities have to consolidate a bit further before this chapter closes. “I just don’t think this volatility is over yet,” said Mark Malek, investment chief at Siebert Financial. Duration remains the primary risk, and it’s why headlines are continuing to drive the market . Investors already understand that inflation is on its way higher, with U.S. gasoline prices topping $4 a gallon as ships remain unable to cross the Strait of Hormuz. But they’re also hopeful an end to the war will mean any spike in pricing pressures will be temporary. .SPX 5D mountain SPX 5-day chart In a nationwide address Wednesday night, President Donald Trump said the war is “getting very close” to an end. But first, he said, the U.S. will hit Tehran “extremely hard.” Investors are assessing what Trump’s plans will mean for restoring trade through the Strait of Hormuz. The critical shipping passage has been largely impassable since the conflict began more than a month ago. That’s pushed up not only oil prices, but the cost of fertilizer and other key commodities such as helium . Next week will bring some major inflation data, most importantly the March reading of the consumer price index on Friday. It will be the first to show any impact from the war. On a headline basis, the CPI is expected to jump to 3.1% from 2.4% on a yearly basis, according to FactSet consensus estimates. With all the uncertainty, Marko Kolanovic, former chief market strategist at JPMorgan, warned investors on Wednesday against going long into a holiday weekend during which hostilities could escalate, and the U.S. could put boots on the ground in the Middle East. “I think its likely that some sort of ground operation will start for this long weekend. All the noise and deception I think is to keep markets (stocks) supported and lid on Oil. To keep everyone complacent,” Kolanovic wrote on social media platform X. “It’s probably safer to fade this rally.” More than one person on the Street has observed over the last month that the stock market sell-off has been more orderly than severe, even as the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Nasdaq Composite each dipped in and out of correction territory this week, and the S & P 500 is close to correction territory itself. Fundstrat technical strategist Mark Newton said he would wait for further consolidation in the April 5-9 timeframe to buy than to try to chase a short-term bounce, though he also expects stocks to have begun the bottoming process . And, no short of Warren Buffett himself said Tuesday that stocks are not yet cheap enough for him to step in. Siebert Financial’s Malek said: “This is not a trading moment.” Week ahead calendar All times ET. Monday, April 6 10:00 a.m. ISM Services PMI (March) Tuesday, April 7 8:30 a.m. Durable Orders preliminary (February) 3:00 p.m. Consumer Credit (February) Wednesday, April 8 2:00 p.m. FOMC Minutes Earnings: Constellation Brands , Delta Air Lines Thursday, April 9 8:30 a.m. GDP final (Q4) 8:30 a.m. Initial Claims (04/04) 8:30 a.m. Personal Consumption Expenditure price index (February) 8:30 a.m. Personal Income (February) 10:00 a.m. Wholesale Inventories (February) Friday, April 10 8:30 a.m. Consumer Price Index (March) 8:30 a.m. Hourly Earnings final (March) 8:30 a.m. Average Workweek final (March) 10:00 a.m. Durable Orders final (February) 10:00 a.m. Factory Orders (February) 10:00 a.m. Michigan Sentiment preliminary (April) 2:00 p.m. Treasury Budget (March)
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