Middle East risks weigh on bonds

The benchmark yield was up more than 8 basis points at 4.42%. The 30-year yield added more than 5 basis points to 4.968%, while the 2-year yielded 3.953%, up more than 12 basis points.

One basis point is equal to 0.01%, and yields and prices move in opposite directions.

Oil had initially slumped on Monday after President Donald Trump said Washington and Tehran had held “very good and productive conversations” toward ending hostilities, adding that he had ordered a five-day pause on planned strikes against Iran’s energy infrastructure.

However, the latest gain in crude prices suggests markets remain unconvinced that tensions will ease quickly, particularly after Iranian officials denied that any talks had taken place.

Analysts noted that conflicting headlines have reinforced uncertainty, keeping both energy and rates markets sensitive to developments. Easing tensions and lower oil prices had briefly supported Treasurys earlier in the week, but renewed uncertainty is once again weighing on sentiment.

“Headline risk remains particularly elevated as the war continues without a clear off-ramp,” BMO’s head of U.S. rates strategy, Ian Lyngen, wrote, adding that U.S. rates are likely to take their primary cue from swings in energy prices until there is greater clarity on the conflict.

Meanwhile, an auction on the 2-year Treasury also disappointed investors. Yields surged following the event, with those on the 2-year and 10-year reaching their highest levels since July.