Stocks Retreat Amid Inflation Fears and Weak US Jobs
Stock indexes are falling today, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average sliding to a 3.5-month low amid concern that the war in the Middle East will keep pushing energy prices higher, sparking inflation. Qatar’s energy minister told the Financial Times today that the war in the Middle East could “bring down the economies of the world,” and predicted that all Gulf energy exporters would shut down production within weeks, driving crude oil prices to $150 a barrel.
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Stock losses accelerated today on comments from President Trump, who said the US doesn’t want to negotiate an end to the war with Iran, and that “there will be no deal with Iran except unconditional surrender,” fueling concerns the US may be girding for an extended conflict.
Stocks also retreated today after US employers unexpectedly cut jobs last month and the unemployment rate rose, raising doubts about the health of the labor market.
US Feb nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly fell by -92,000, weaker than expectations of a +55,000 increase and the biggest decline in four months. The Feb unemployment rate unexpectedly rose +0.1 to 4.4%, showing a weaker labor market than expectations of no change at 4.3%.
US Feb average hourly earnings rose +0.4% m/m and +3.8% y/y, stronger than expectations of +0.3% m/m and +3.7% y/y.
US Jan retail sales fell -0.2% m/m, a smaller decline than expectations of -0.3% m/m, Jan retail sales ex-autos were unchanged m/m, right on expectations.
Fed Governor Christopher Waller said, “Thinking about monetary policy going forward, the Iran war is unlikely to cause sustained inflation. That’s one reason the Fed doesn’t look at energy prices but looks at core prices, excluding energy, as core is a better predictor of future inflation.”
WTI crude (CLJ26) is up more than +9% today to a 2.25-year high, adding to this week’s surge, as the war rages on in the Middle East for a seventh day. Iran fired a barrage of missiles and drones targeting a number of Gulf countries overnight, while the US and Israel maintained airstrikes on Iran. Key energy facilities in the Middle East have been struck by Iranian drones or forced to shut as storage tanks have filled up, as the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has halted energy exports.
The Strait of Hormuz remains closed due to the war against Iran, halting most energy shipments from the Persian Gulf. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has warned ships not to sail through the passageway, saying that vessels “could be at risk from missiles or rogue drones.” The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which handles a fifth of the world’s oil, has curbed exports and forced Gulf producers to stockpile the crude locally in storage tanks. Goldman Sachs estimates the real-time risk premium for crude oil at $18/bbl, corresponding to its estimate of the impact of a six-week full halt to tanker traffic in the Strait of Hormuz.
In addition, damage from an intercepted Iranian drone caused a major fire on Tuesday at the United Arab Emirates’ major oil-trading hub, Fujairah, one of the largest oil storage centers in the Middle East. European natural gas prices surged to a 3-year high on Tuesday after Qatar shut its Ras Laffan plant, the world’s largest natural gas export facility, after it was targeted by an Iranian drone attack. The Ras Laffan plant accounts for about 20% of the global liquefied natural gas supply. On Thursday, China told its largest refiner to suspend exports of diesel and gasoline due to the escalating conflict in the Persian Gulf, which will tighten global fuel supplies and push fuel prices even higher.
Q4 earnings season is nearing its end, with more than 90% of the S&P 500 companies having reported earnings results. Earnings have been a positive factor for stocks, with 73% of the 481 S&P 500 companies that have reported beating expectations. According to Bloomberg Intelligence, S&P earnings growth is expected to climb by +8.4% in Q4, marking the tenth consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth. Excluding the Magnificent Seven megacap technology stocks, Q4 earnings are expected to increase by +4.6%.
The markets are discounting a 5% chance for a -25 bp rate cut at the next policy meeting on March 17-18.
Overseas stock markets are mixed today. The Euro Stoxx 50 tumbled to a 3-month low and is down -1.09%. China’s Shanghai Composite closed up +0.38%. Japan’s Nikkei Stock 225 closed up +0.62%.
Interest Rates
June 10-year T-notes (ZNM6) today are down by -5 ticks. The 10-year T-note yield is up by +0.6 bp to 4.144%. June T-notes tumbled to a 3-week low today, and the 10-year T-note yield jumped to a 3-week high of 4.175%. Growing inflation fears are undercutting T-note prices after WTI crude oil surged more than +9% today to a 2.25-year high, boosting inflation expectations, as the 10-year breakeven rate climbed to a 5-week high of 2.378%.
Losses in T-notes are limited after today’s weaker-than-expected US Feb payroll report bolstered the outlook for the Fed to cut interest rates. T-note prices also found support today on comments from Fed Governor Christopher Waller, who said the Iran war is unlikely to cause sustained inflation.
European government bond yields are moving higher today. The 10-year German bund yield climbed to a 1-month high of 2.880% and is up +1.3 bp to 2.854%. The 10-year UK gilt yield rose to a 4.75-month high of 4.718% and is up +11.0 bp to 4.651%.
Eurozone Q4 GDP was revised lower to +0.2% q/q and +1.2% y/y from the previously reported +0.3% q/q and +1.3% y/y.
Swaps are discounting a 3% chance of a -25 bp rate hike by the ECB at its next policy meeting on March 19.
US Stock Movers
The weakness in the Magnificent Seven technology stocks is bearish for the overall market. Meta Platforms (META) and Tesla (TSLA) are down more than -2%, and Apple (AAPL), Amazon.com (AMZN), and Nvidia (NVDA) are down more than -1%. In addition, Alphabet (GOOGL) is down -0.55%, and Microsoft (MSFT) is down -0.24%.
Chipmakers and AI-infrastructure stocks are falling today, pressuring the broader market. ASML Holding NV (ASML) is down by more than -3%, and Micron Technology (MU), Applied Materials (AMAT), NXP Semiconductors NV (NXPI), Lam Research (LRCX), Analog Devices (ADI), Microchip Technology (MCHP), Intel (INTC), and Western Digital (WDC) are down more than -2%. Also, KLA Corp (KLAC) and Texas Instruments (TXN) are down more than -1%.
Airline stocks are tumbling today as crude oil prices surge more than +10% to a 2.25-year high, boosting jet fuel prices and potentially cutting into airlines’ profits. Southwest Airlines (LUV) is down more than -6%, and Delta Air Lines (DAL) is down more than -4%. Also, American Airlines Group (AAL) and United Airlines Holdings (UAL) are down more than -3%, andAlaska Air Group (ALK) is down more than -1%.
Homebuilders are moving lower today as the 10-year T-note yield climbed to a 3-week high, which will boost mortgage rates and weigh on housing demand. Lennar (LEN), Toll Brothers (TOL), PulteGroup (PHM), and DR Horton (DHI) are down more than -2%, and KB Home (KBH) is down more than -1%.
Cryptocurrency-exposed stocks are falling today, with Bitcoin (^BTCUSD) down more than +3%. Riot Platforms (RIOT) is down more than +8%, and MARA Holdings (MARA) is down more than -6%. Also, Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY) is down by more than -5%, and Coinbase Global (COIN) and Strategy (MSTR) are down more than -4%.
Defense stocks are climbing today on speculation that the Iran war may bolster the US defense funding budget. Huntington Ingalls Industries (HII) and AeroVironment (AVAV) are up more than +2%. Also, Lockheed Martin (LMT) and RTX Crop (RTX) are up more than +1%. In addition, Northrop Grumman (NOC) is up +0.78%, L3Harris Technologies (LHX) is up +0.53%, and General Dynamics (GD) is up +0.25%.
The Gap (GAP) is down more than -13% after reporting Q4 total comparable sales rose +3.00%, weaker than the consensus of +3.43%.
Nutex Health (NUTX) is down more than -12% after reporting an unexpected decline in Q4 diluted EPS of -$1.18, well below the consensus of a $3.19 gain.
Cooper Cos. (COO) is down more than -4% after reporting Q1 net sales of $1.02 billion, below the consensus of $1.03 billion.
Trade Desk (TTD) is down more than -3% after Wedbush downgraded the stock to underperform from neutral with a price target of $23.
Marvell Technology (MRVL) is up more than +16% to lead gainers in the Nasdaq 100 after saying its year-over-year revenue growth rate will accelerate each quarter throughout fiscal 2027.
Samsara (IOT) is up more than +14% after reporting Q4 revenue of $444.3 million, stronger than the consensus of $422.3 million.
CF Industries Holdings (CF) is up more than +7% to lead gainers in the S&P 500, and fertilizer stocks higher on concern that the war in Iran could disrupt supplies as the Gulf region is home to some of the world’s largest fertilizer plants, and the Strait of Hormuz handles about one-third of the global trade for fertilizer.
Costco Wholesale (COST) is up more than 1% after reporting Q2 total company comparable sales, including gas and currency, rose 7.4%, stronger than expectations of 6.72%.
Earnings Reports(3/6/2026)
Aldeyra Therapeutics Inc (ALDX), America’s Car-Mart Inc/TX (CRMT), ECB Bancorp Inc/MD (ECBK), Eve Holding Inc (EVEX), Foghorn Therapeutics Inc (FHTX), Genesco Inc (GCO), Greene County Bancorp Inc (GCBC), Kingstone Cos Inc (KINS), Mammoth Energy Services Inc (TUSK), National Beverage Corp (FIZZ), National Presto Industries Inc (NPK), NI Holdings Inc (NODK), Oruka Therapeutics Inc (ORKA), Prairie Operating Co (PROP), Silvercrest Asset Management Group (SAMG), Solid Biosciences Inc (SLDB), Tejon Ranch Co (TRC), Vox Royalty Corp (VOXR).
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