Precious metals recover from early February lows

The precious metal price staged a recovery off the lows recorded in early February. The recovery was primarily fuelled by the uncertainty over U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff plans. The lower-than-expected U.S. GDP data also helped bolster sentiment towards precious metals. The lingering geopolitical tension in Iran also helped the cause.

Comex gold managed to claw its way back above the psychological $5,000-mark and settled at $5,296.4 by the end of February. This represents a 7.92% gain last month.

The price action in Comex silver was no different to that of gold with the white metal posting a 10.72% gain in February to settle at $94.38 per ounce.

Mirroring the trend in the global markets, the MCX Gold price also recovered off the lows recorded earlier last month. MCX gold closed at ₹1,61,971 per 10-grams at the end of February, representing a 7.37% gain.

Unlike gold, MCX silver closed on a weak note in February. The white metal price closed 8.96% lower last month to settle at ₹2,81,990 per kilogram.

As anticipated last month, precious metals price remained range-bound and was confined to $4,400-$5,650 mentioned last month. While the long-term trend remains positive, the gold price is may still spend some time in this range before the long-term uptrend reasserts. Only a drop below $4,400 would be a cause of concern for the validity of the long-term uptrend. On the upside, the next major target is at $5,650-$5,700 for comex gold.

Similar to gold, comex silver price too was confined within the $75-$110 range mentioned last month. This range-bound price action is likely to persist until there is a clear breakout from this range. The long-term trend remains positive and the next major target for silver is $125-$135.

Domestic market

In the domestic market too, gold price was stuck in the ₹1,45,000-₹1,90,000 range mentioned last month.

Expect volatile back and forth movement within this zone to persist for the next few weeks. Though the long-term trend is still positive, the price has to breakout above ₹1,91,000 to trigger the move to the next target of ₹2,05,000-₹2,10,000.

MCX silver also was confined to the ₹2,40,000-₹3,85,000 zone that was mentioned last month. This range-bound price action is likely to continue in the near term. Only a breakout from the extremes of this zone would set the tone for the next big directional move. Until then expect volatile price action within this broad zone. The long-term target for silver is ₹3,95,000-₹4,15,000. The positive long-term view would be invalidated if the price falls below ₹2,30,000.

To summarise, both gold and silver have cooled off from overbought zone. The price action is likely to be confined to a broad trading range for the next several weeks.

(The author is a Chennai based analyst/trader. The views and opinion featured in this column is based on the analysis of short-term price movement in gold and silver futures at COMEX & Multi Commodity Exchange of India. This is not meant to be a trading or investment advice)