Trump previewed weak GDP on Truth Social ahead of official release

“The Democrat Shutdown cost the U.S.A. at least two points in GDP. That’s why they are doing it, in mini form, again,” Trump wrote in a Truth Social post at 7:50 a.m. ET.

At 8:30 a.m., the Commerce Department reported that U.S. gross domestic product rose at an annualized rate of just 1.4% in the fourth quarter of 2025. That’s a decline of three percentage points from the previous three-month period.

Trump’s Friday morning post referred to last year’s record-length government shutdown, which began Oct. 1 — the start of the fourth quarter — and lasted 43 days.

The federal funding lapse was expected to take a toll on GDP. The U.S. Congressional Budget Office estimated that, depending on its length, the shutdown would shrink annualized real GDP growth in Q4 by up to 2 percentage points.

But economists from Dow Jones were still estimating a 2.5% gain for the period.

Trump has previously revealed economic data before its official release, raising questions about possible policy violations and concerns that traders may be getting a heads up from the president, who can be briefed on the data before it comes out.

The Office of Management and Budget not only prohibits executive branch officials from commenting early on such releases, but forbids public statements about them until 30 minutes after they have come out.

A White House official defended Trump’s post, telling CNBC on condition of anonymity that the president has consistently pointed out how the shutdown has been a drag on the economy, including by sharing GDP percentage figures “consistent with his 2% Truth this morning.”

In a Truth Social post in January, Trump indirectly revealed forthcoming nonfarm payrolls data.

The White House at the time admitted that there was an “inadvertent public disclosure of aggregate data” while attacking the media for “grasping at straws to foment another fake controversy.”

During his first presidential term, Trump signaled optimism about a blowout jobs report shortly before its release.

Trump’s post Friday morning also reiterated his long-running criticism of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell over his refusal to lower interest rates as sharply or quickly as the president wants.

“Also, LOWER INTEREST RATES. ‘Two Late’ Powell is the WORST!!!” Trump wrote.

He has previously branded Powell with the derisive nickname “Too Late”; it was unclear if the president meant to misspell the nickname in Friday’s post.

The White House did not immediately respond to CNBC’s request for comment on Trump’s social media post.