Ontario finance minister says rate of health-care spending is ‘unsustainable’

When Peter Bethlenfalvy addressed the Mississauga Board of Trade in January, he outlined some of the issues that appear to be weighing on his mind as he crafts the upcoming budget set to be delivered in late March.

“We’re in unprecedented territory in terms of the concerns of people. People are scared, they’re worried, they are concerned,” Bethlenfalvy said of the current geopolitical and economic climate fuelled, in part, by U.S. President Donald Trump.

At the same time, Bethlenfalvy warned that the province was facing a “big headwind, on top of the uncertainty” that threatens to squeeze Ontario even further.

“The economic environment is slowing down, there’s just no question,” the minister said. “We’re growing at the slowest rate we’ve grown post-COVID.”

Adding to the GDP concerns, the finance minister pointed out that “flattening” population growth is another factor his department is closely watching as it decides how to allocate billions in spending.

“Eighty-five per cent of the spending in the budget is actually for social spending. About 15 per cent is for infrastructure and the economy,” Bethlenfalvy explained.

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“We have a slowing population and a slowing economic growth and a trajectory of social spending that’s been, frankly, unprecedented. So we’re going to have to manage that challenge.”

Later, during a fireside chat, the minister put it more clearly: “Our health-care spending is unsustainable. We just have to deal with reality that we can’t keep spending, particularly when our population is flattening.”

The comments come at a time when hospitals warned the government they are facing a billion-dollar structural deficit and are now preparing for “difficult decisions” unless the Ford government increases health-care funding in its upcoming budget.

The Ontario Hospital Association said health-care costs have risen by six per cent a year, largely due to a growing and aging population and inflation, forcing health-care institutions to erode their capital and borrow money to stay afloat.

Rob Cerjanec, a Liberal MPP from Ajax, said the finance minister’s comments are “incredibly concerning,” especially for residents who want assurances that health care will be available when needed.

“When we hear a minister of finance talking about health-care spending being unsustainable, I mean that could be the difference between life or death for somebody,” Cerjanec said.

“We have great pride in our public health-care system. We need to strengthen our public health-care system.”

Recently, Ontario’s financial accountability officer revealed that the province was projecting a “significantly slower pace” of health-care spending in the next few years compared with the previous three.

The 2025 budget projected that health-care spending would grow by an average rate of 0.7 per cent between 2025 and 2028.

By contrast, the health-care budget grew by 6.6 per cent on average between 2021 and 2024.

“Over the 34-year period from 1990-91 to 2023-24, health sector spending grew at an average annual rate of 5.0 per cent,” the budget watchdog notes. “If the Province’s health sector spending plan in the 2025 budget is achieved, it would be the slowest three-year growth rate since 1993-94 to 1996-97.”

When Global News asked the finance minister whether his “unsustainable” remark meant he was considering cutting spending, Bethlenfalvy rejected the notion.

“We’re not going to cut health-care spending,” the finance minister said, before adding that his goal is to deliver health spending in an “efficient, effective and innovative way.”

Bethlenfalvy said that includes focusing on reducing surgical wait times, easing hallway health care and expanding access to family doctors.

The minister added that the use of artificial intelligence to help physicians take notes and using tracking devices on gurneys and wheelchairs are examples of innovation to free up resources and stretch precious health-care dollars.

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