GE Vernova Rallies on the AI Grid Supercycle: Turbines, Transformers, and Cash Returns

While the stock market has spent the last two years obsessed with microchips and artificial intelligence (AI) software, a quiet revolution has taken place in the physical world. The massive data centers required to run AI models have an insatiable appetite for electricity, and the aging global power grid is struggling to keep up. This disconnect between digital ambition and physical reality has fueled a rally for GE Vernova (NYSE: GEV).

Following its spin-off from parent conglomerate General Electric in April 2024, GE Vernova has quickly established itself as a standalone industrial giant. As of mid-February, the stock is trading near $800, marking an all-time high. Over the last 12 months, shares have surged approximately 107%, significantly outperforming legacy industrial peers.

Investors are waking up to a simple reality: the AI revolution stops cold without the electricity to run it. By providing the machinery to generate power and the hardware to transport it, GE Vernova has positioned itself as the utility belt for the global energy transition. The company is no longer just an industrial spinoff; it is the primary infrastructure play for the next decade of digital growth.

The Cash Engine: Fueling the Data Center Boom

The primary force driving GE Vernova’s valuation is its Power segment, specifically the gas turbine business. While the world transitions toward renewable energy, sources like wind and solar are intermittent; the sun does not always shine, and the wind does not always blow. However, data centers operated by major technology firms require baseload power that runs 24 hours a day, seven days a week. To bridge this gap, utilities and independent power producers are turning to natural gas turbines.

This urgent demand created a massive seller’s market in late 2025. GE Vernova’s recent financial results illustrate just how aggressive this buying spree has become:

• Order Surge: In the fourth quarter of 2025, orders in the Power segment surged 77% organically.
• Backlog Growth: The backlog for gas turbines and slot reservations jumped from 62 gigawatts (GW) to 83 GW over just the last quarter. Management explicitly targets hitting 100 GW by the end of 2026.
• Capacity Expansion: To meet this demand, the company is ramping up manufacturing capacity to produce approximately 20 GW of turbines annually by mid-2026.

Utilities are not just buying for today; they are booking manufacturing slots years in advance. On Feb. 3, 2026, the company signed a Strategic Alliance Agreement with Xcel Energy (NASDAQ: XEL). This deal secures hardware capacity through the 2030s, effectively locking in revenue for the next decade. Similarly, a reservation agreement with Maxim Power (TSE: MXG) demonstrates that power producers are willing to pay just to hold a place in line. Additionally, the company is successfully selling HE (High Efficiency) upgrades, such as the recent completion at the Coryton Power Plant in the UK, which allow existing plants to generate more power with less fuel.

Plugging In: The $5.3 Billion Bet on Transformers

Generating electricity is only half the battle; it must also be transported to where it is needed. The Electrification segment, which focuses on grid solutions, has emerged as the company’s fastest-growing unit. Revenue in this segment jumped 36% in the fourth quarter, driven by the urgent need to modernize aging electrical grids to handle the heavy loads from AI data centers and electric vehicles.

A major catalyst for this segment materialized on Feb. 2, 2026, when GE Vernova closed its acquisition of the remaining 50% stake in Prolec GE. This $5.3 billion transaction is a game-changer for several reasons:

• Supply Chain Control: It gives GE Vernova full control over a massive manufacturing footprint for electrical transformers.
• Critical Shortages: Transformers are currently the single biggest bottleneck in the electrical supply chain, with lead times for new units stretching into years.
• Data Center Focus: Prolec GE offers a dedicated product line for data center power, aligning perfectly with the AI narrative.

Furthermore, the company is expanding margins by layering software on top of its hardware. The recent launch of GridBeats, a software-defined automation suite, allows utilities to manage substations more efficiently. This shift toward digital solutions helps explain why margins in the Electrification segment expanded to 17.1% in the most recent quarter.

Profit Over Volume: Converting Headwinds into Dividends

While the Power and Electrification segments are booming, the Wind segment remains a recovery story. The segment reported an EBITDA loss in 2025 (~$600 million), driven largely by challenges in the offshore wind market, including regulatory delays at the Vineyard Wind project caused by a government stop-work order.

However, investors have largely looked past these losses because management is exercising strict financial discipline. Rather than chasing unprofitable growth to boost revenue, GE Vernova is intentionally shrinking its onshore wind backlog to focus only on profitable deals. This profit over volume strategy is showing green shoots:

• Repowering Wins: In 2025, the company secured 1.1 GW of repowering orders for the U.S. onshore market.
• The Logic: Repowering involves upgrading existing wind turbines with newer, more efficient technology (like new nacelles and drivetrains) while keeping the original towers. This process is generally faster and more profitable than building new farms from scratch.

Because the gas and grid businesses are generating so much cash, the struggles in wind have not hampered the company’s financial strength. GE Vernova generated $3.7 billion in Free Cash Flow in 2025, more than double the previous year’s output. This cash generation allowed the Board of Directors to take two major shareholder-friendly actions:

1. Dividend Hike: Doubled the quarterly dividend to 50 cents per share, annualized to $2.00.
2. Buybacks: Increased the share repurchase authorization to $10 billion.

These moves signal strong management confidence that the cash flow hose will remain open, regardless of short-term volatility in the wind sector.

Pricing the Supercycle: Is the Premium Worth It?

GE Vernova is currently trading at a premium valuation of approximately 45 times trailing earnings. While this is high for a traditional industrial stock, the market is pricing in the unprecedented visibility provided by a record $150 billion backlog. This backlog effectively locks in revenue growth for years to come, insulating the company from short-term economic fluctuations.

The AI trade has evolved. Phase one was about semiconductors and chips (like NVIDIA: (NASDAQ: NVDA)); phase two is about the infrastructure required to run them. With the integration of Prolec GE and its dominant position in gas power, GE Vernova has cemented its leadership in phase two. While risks remain regarding offshore wind execution, the accelerating demand for electricity suggests the company’s momentum is backed by fundamental necessity rather than speculative hype.

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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.