Here are the five key takeaways from the January jobs report
David Ryder | Bloomberg | Getty Images
- From a headline perspective, the news was good. Nonfarm payrolls rose by 130,000 and the unemployment rate fell to 4.3%, the latter thanks to a boom of 528,000 in household employment. The Dow Jones consensus was for 55,000 jobs and a 4.4% unemployment rate.
- Wages also rose, climbing a higher-than-expected 0.4% for the month and 3.7% annually. Hours worked, a productivity gauge, increased to 34.3 hours, up by 0.1 hour.
- Along with the sunshine came some rain. Annual revisions to the jobs count benchmarked against Census data showed that for the April 2024-March 2025 period, payrolls growth was 898,000 lower than initially stated. Moreover, November’s previous estimate fell by 15,000 and December was off 1,000. For the final six months of 2025, the economy lost a net 1,000 jobs.
- Payroll growth again was concentrated in health care-related fields: There were 82,000 jobs in ambulatory health care services, hospitals and nursing and residential care facilities, and another 42,000 in social assistance. Only construction, which added 33,000 positions, showed any noticeable improvement.
- Traders increased their bets that the strong headline payrolls number and decline in the unemployment rate would keep the Federal Reserve on the sidelines until the summer. Futures market trading implied just an 8% probability of a cut in March, with the next reduction not likely happening until at least June, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch gauge.
They said it:
“Just in: GREAT JOBS NUMBERS, FAR GREATER THAN EXPECTED! The United States of America should be paying MUCH LESS on its Borrowings (BONDS!). We are again the strongest Country in the World, and should therefore be paying the LOWEST INTEREST RATE, by far. This would be an INTEREST COST SAVINGS OF AT LEAST ONE TRILLION DOLLARS PER YEAR – BALANCED BUDGET, PLUS. WOW! The Golden Age of America is upon us!!!” — President Donald Trump, in a Truth Social post
“The strong payrolls print in January may be somewhat exaggerated: construction payrolls jumped, sensitive to warmer January weather; healthcare payrolls were well above trend; and retail stabilized. The underlying pace for private payrolls is probably closer to 50k per month after accounting for the temporary strength in those areas, close to the recent pace.” — Michael Gapen, Morgan Stanley chief economist
“The strong jobs growth in January assuages some concerns around the softening labor market and supports the outlook for consumption. But we’ll need to see more data to determine whether January is a brief deviation from an overall trend or a reversal of the weakening employment outlook.” — Atsi Sheth, Moody’s Ratings chief credit officer
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