Taking Stock of the Q4 Earnings Season
Note: The following is an excerpt from this week’s Earnings Trends report. You can access the full report that contains detailed historical actual and estimates for the current and following periods, please click here>>>
Here are the key points:
- The picture emerging from the Q4 earnings season is one of a steadily improving earnings outlook that is starting to show up in a favorable estimates revisions trend, particularly for some of the economically sensitive sectors like Basic Materials, Autos, Construction, and others. We should note here that the revisions trend has been consistently positive for the Tech sector for the last many quarters.
- Total earnings for the 106 S&P 500 members that have reported Q4 results are up +14.9% from the same period last year on +7.9% higher revenues, with 76.4% beating EPS estimates and 63.2% beating revenue estimates.
- The Q4 earnings and revenue growth pace at this stage represent a clear acceleration from what we had seen from this group of companies in other recent periods. Positive beats are less numerous this reporting cycle, with the EPS and revenue beats percentages tracking below the 20-quarter averages for this group of index members.
- The Tech sector has been a key growth driver since 2023 and is on track to play that role in 2025 Q4 and beyond as well. Q4 earnings growth for the S&P 500 index drops to +5.5% from +9.2% after removing the Tech sector’s enormous contribution from the aggregate numbers. The Tech sector is currently expected to account for almost half of S&P 500 earnings growth in 2026.
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Q4 earnings for the ‘Magnificent 7’ group of companies, which includes the likes of Meta Platforms META, Microsoft MSFT, and Tesla TSLA, are expected to be up +17.1% from the same period last year on +16.7% higher revenues. Excluding the ‘Mag 7’ contribution, Q4 earnings for the rest of the index would be up only +6.3% (vs. +9.2%).
The Earnings Big Picture
The chart below shows expectations for 2025 Q4 in terms of what was achieved in the preceding four periods and what is currently expected for the next three quarters.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The chart below shows the overall earnings picture for the S&P 500 index on an annual basis.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The Tech sector has an outsized role in the S&P 500 index. The sector is expected to bring 36.1% of the index’s total earnings over the coming four-quarter period and currently accounts for 43.3% of the index’s total market capitalization. The Tech sector’s positive estimate revision trend is a major reason its members enjoy a strong market following and support.
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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
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