Gold surges past $5,000 to a fresh record

Spot gold prices and U.S. gold futures for February gained 1.2%, trading at $5,042 and $5,036 an ounce, respectively.

The precious metal’s surge comes as recent flashpoints from Greenland and Venezuela to the Middle East underscore higher geopolitical risk, reinforcing gold’s appeal as a hedge against uncertainty.

“The recent further leg up in gold and silver prices has arrived on the back of geoeconomics issues related to Greenland,” HSBC wrote in a note last week.

Silver also rallied Monday, with spot prices jumping 3% to $106.1 per ounce, also benefiting from industrial demand.

Analysts at Union Bancaire Privée said Friday that prices have rallied on the back of sustained demand from both institutional and retail buyers.

“We anticipate that gold should enjoy another strong year, reflecting ongoing central bank and retail investment demand, with a year-end target price of USD 5,200 per ounce,” UBP said.

Goldman Sachs sees the demand base for gold to have broadened beyond traditional channels. Western ETF holdings have climbed by about 500 tonnes since the start of 2025, while newer instruments used to hedge macro-policy risks, including physical purchases by high-net-worth families, have become an increasingly important source of demand.

The investment bank recently lifted its December 2026 gold price forecast to $5,400 an ounce, up from $4,900 previously, arguing that hedges against global macro and policy risks have become “sticky,” effectively lifting the starting point for gold prices this year.

Central bank purchases also remain robust. Goldman estimates central-bank purchases are now averaging around 60 tonnes a month, far above the pre-2022 average of 17 tonnes, with emerging-market central banks continuing to shift reserves into gold.

Crucially, the bank assumes that hedges against global macro-policy risks, including concerns around fiscal sustainability, will remain in place through 2026, unlike election-related hedges that unwound quickly after the U.S. vote in late 2024.

“We assume that hedges of global macro policy risks remain stable as these perceived risks (e.g. fiscal sustainability) may not fully resolve in 2026,” Goldman said last week.