2026 MLB Odds: Baltimore Orioles Best Bet to Win AL East

The snow is slowly melting, and the days are getting longer and warmer. Yes, Major League Baseball is back. 

Well, almost back. 

Spring training games begin this week, and we are a little more than a month away from the return of the MLB regular season. 

We are coming off the high of one of the greatest World Series in baseball history and an epic Game 7 that crowned the Dodgers as the first back-to-back champions since the Yankees of the early 2000s. 

Now, 2026 promises to be another exciting year. 

With the season fast approaching, let’s take a look at the American League East and a wager that I believe offers tremendous value regarding the potential division champion.

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Last year, the team with the longest division odds and lowest win total in the East, the Toronto Blue Jays, outperformed their last-place projection and won the division on their way to the World Series. Will 2026 see another long shot pay off in the ultra-competitive AL East? 

I’m looking at the Baltimore Orioles at +475. 

In 2023, the Orioles won 101 games and won the AL East. In 2024, the Orioles and Yankees had a season-long battle for the division, with the Yankees eventually pulling away and coming out on top. That young and promising Orioles team won 91 games but got swept in the wild-card round by the Royals. 

The Orioles’ disappointing postseason exit was a sign of things to come, and 2025 was a season derailed by a cluster of injuries to the pitching staff and regression by some of their talented young position players. This year, however, could look more like the ’23 and ‘24 seasons in what I expect to be a bounce-back year in Baltimore. 

The pitching rotation — at least for now — is healthy. Righty Kyle Bradish returned at the tail end of last year and is generating some buzz as a Cy Young sleeper. Lefty Trevor Rogers emerged as one of the best arms in baseball last year and, despite only throwing 109 innings, he found his way onto the Cy Young ballot with a 1.81 era.  

Shane Baz was once a highly touted pitching prospect and will likely see his stats improve after leaving the hitter-friendly Steinbrenner Field following his trade from the Tampa Bay Rays. Veteran Chris Bassitt was signed recently. He is a solid innings-eater who won 15 games in 2022 and led the AL in wins in 2023 with 16, consistently logging 27 or more starts every year since 2019 (outside the 2020 shortened season).

The pitching is infinitely better than it was last year, and the offense should get a bump as well. All-Star first baseman Pete Alonso and outfielder Taylor Ward were both added in the offseason, supplementing what looks to be a dynamic lineup. Those two players combined for 74 home runs in 2025. 

It’s a competitive division, perhaps the best in baseball, but the Yankees and Red Sox did very little over the offseason to improve their teams and the Blue Jays will have to prove they were not a one-year wonder. 

The value here is on the Orioles at a juicy number to rebound and win the AL East crown.

PICK: Orioles (+475) to win AL East